Mrs. Zhang Hexiang, Head of the Institute of Economy of Management Research, Aviation Industry Development Research Center of China (AIDRCC)

China: The Engine of Asian Aviation Growth

China had massive aviation transport growth forecast in the next 15 years and new airport construction was necessary to facilitate growth. Servicing capacity must increase otherwise congestion would become a major problem. China’s three largest airports were already at full capacity while the number of passengers was increasing at 8.61% per year.

To minimize problems associated with rapid growth, effective training was of great importance. Airline alliances needed to be established and new policies and regulations that met international standards needed to be implemented.

Air cargo traffic increased by 12.2% last year. A big factor was the export market, which was growing fast in China. New policies must be put in place, as capacity would be reached by 2025.

China was now classed as a “comparatively strong” country and by 2020 was expected to be competing with countries in Europe and North America.

Mr. Pradeep Panicker, VP & Head of Strategic Planning,  GMR Group.

India’s aviation and airport infrastructure scenarios

India’s economy was the second largest in the world, behind China. It had the lowest phone call rates in the world and an increasingly large penetration of consumer goods in rural areas. Consumers were far more prominent now, with children influencing purchases.

Airfares were becoming cheaper than train fares, but the lack of airports was inhibiting growth.

Urban development and increased leisure traffic were two leading factors influencing airport growth, while the lack of good train-airport links was another problem.

He said there was a need for a more organized approach as only nine airports in India actually turned a profit.

Delhi airport expansions would boost operating efficiency in India and the redesign of this airport was an ideal model for the future in India.

Freight traffic figures were forecast to increase dramatically at Delhi after a new runway became operational in 2008 and the new terminal opened in 2010.

Dr. Michael Kerkloh, Chief Executive Officer, Munich
Flughafen München GmbH (Munich Airport)

The Future of Hub-operations in Europe

Munich Airport’s new Terminal 3, opened in 2003, was specifically designed for Star Alliance passengers.

European airports handled much greater traffic than India. Munich was the seventh busiest airport in Europe, with considerable room for expansion. Traffic was set to triple by 2025.

Munich was an ideal geographical hub, situated in the very heart of the new Europe. It intended to develop and expand on routing to Eastern Europe. Its airport was also seeing a sharp increase in low-cost flights and enjoyed the shortest transfer times in Europe.

The challenge for Europe was to provide greater runway capacity in order to accommodate increased traffic. Heathrow and Frankfurt were good examples of hubs, which must increase their runway capacities to stay ahead. Air space must also be increased and become better managed. Established hubs were likely to profit most from the new, bigger aircraft coming into service.

Europe currently had 3.4 per cent aviation growth forecast. If plans were well managed by airlines and governments, this growth could be achieved.

Mr. Andrew Herdman, Director-General,

The Association of Asia-Pacific Airlines (AAPA),Kuala Lumpur

The EU's Emission Trading Scheme, Implication for Asia-Pacific Airlines

Aviation growth was only good if it was sustainable. The Asia-Pacific region was very diverse, with big variances in incomes. Many poor countries had dynamic economies, providing a market for aviation industry growth.

Growth in aviation was viewed as healthy progress by Asian nations but a bad thing in Europe and the United States, in view of negative factors such as noise and global warming.

Aviation in the Asia-Pacific region currently gave small returns – $2 billion from $110 billion, which was less than 4 per cent. In contrast, by 2025, the region would be responsible for 33 per cent of global aviation traffic.

Seventy-five per cent of our needs were met by carbon fuels. Demand would grow by 50 per cent by 2030, which was just 2 per cent a year. This showed that we were becoming more efficient with carbon-fuel consumption. China was leading the pack in terms of growth of carbon-fuel usage and this year was expected to exceed the consumption of the US. The average American used five times the amount of carbon fuel as the average Chinese person.

The aviation industry had come under attack by the media as the principal cause of climate change. However, the industry had had a negligible impact on the problem, he said. Airlines were now responding with campaigns and messages, and there was a need for airlines to work together to help dispel the myth that they were a leading cause of global warming.

New fuel-efficient planes were helping. Better airspace management would also help, he said. 

A government tax, called “green tax”, was being introduced but would not bring desired results as cost increases passed on to the consumer had not proved effective in reducing passenger numbers. Fuel efficiency was the answer.

The goal for the year 2020 was to reduce emissions by 20 per cent. Europe had developed a carbon market that charged $20 per ton of carbon emission. However, this emissions-trading scheme needed to be more stringent if it was to be effective. To meet the cost of emissions caps, air fares had to rise by 3 per cent.

Economics, politics and science had to come together to find the answers to the issue of carbon  emissions.